After many twists and turns, the UK will finally leave the European Union on 31 January 2020. The exit puts an end to a disruptive domestic political process spanning nearly four years with the slight majority “Leave” outcome in the referendum on 23 June 2016 as a starting point. The withdrawal agreement — which won the British public’s indirect approval with the landslide victory of prime minister Boris Johnson’s conservative party in the UK general election on 13 December 2019 — was passed into UK law and ratified by the EU parliament on 23 and 29 January 2020, 分别.

这份600页的脱欧协议包含以下主要条款:
  • The UK will continue to apply the entire body of EU law and therefore remain in the single market and customs union during a transition period until 31 December 2020.
  • The UK will continue to apply EU trade policy and any trade agreements signed by the UK will not be able to enter into force until the transition period ends.
  • 双方可将过渡期延长一次，最长可延长两年. 为了触发延期，他们必须同意在2020年7月1日之前这样做.
  • The rights of UK citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK will be protected, 还有他们的家人, 为了让他们继续在那里生活和工作. This also applies to citizens who move to the UK or the EU during the transition period.
  • 英国将遵守其作为欧盟成员国所做的财政承诺. 这包括它对欧盟预算的贡献. 欧盟项目的英国受益者将继续参与，直到项目结束.

Thus, 暂时地, 对向英国出口或在英国开展业务的日博备用网站公司来说，一切如常.

英国经济经历了自金融危机以来最弱的GDP增长

但这并不比西欧其他国家更糟. 我们预计国内生产总值增长1%.今年为0%，但逐渐加速，增长了1%.明年9%. 英国央行很可能将政策利率维持在0.75%到明年年初. 去年, the UK fell from the sixth to the seventh most important trading partner for Sweden — still one of the most important trading partners and will probably remain so in the future.

维持北爱尔兰和爱尔兰之间的开放边界

在另一份日博体育备用北爱尔兰的议定书中, it is stated that the territory will leave the EU’s customs union together with the rest of the UK but adopt the single market regulations for goods, 包括欧盟增值税. 海关边界将设在爱尔兰海, 为了避免在陆地上设置检查点的“硬边界”, which would risk provoking new outbursts of violence between Irish republicans and unionists.

欧盟关税将由英国代表欧盟征收. These arrangements — which are part of the revised withdrawal agreement — are intended to be permanent, provided there is consent in the future by the Northern Ireland Assembly (parliament). The two parties have agreed that an open border will be maintained between Northern Ireland and Ireland no matter the outcome of the negotiations on EU-UK future relations.

退欧后的谈判——至少可以说工作量很大

The post-Brexit talks between the EU and the UK on their future relationship will be led by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Boris Johnson’s Europe adviser, 大卫弗罗斯特, 最后期限只有10个月. The prime minister has said he will not extend the transition period past 31 December 2020. 在今年年底前谈判达成贸易协议可能是不可能的, and our best guess is that the transition period will be extended to the end of 2022.

Brussels’ opening negotiating position will be adopted by EU ministers at a meeting on 25 February. 目前，人们对这些计划知之甚少. 欧盟没有零关税, zero-quota, 与世界上任何一个国家的传统自由贸易协定. 但一旦谈判开始, it may be access to fishing waters and the EU’s demand for a “level playing field” that will pose the biggest obstacles to success. The 31 December deadline also means negotiations should be concluded on such matters as security and intelligence cooperation, data, 教育及研究合作.

来总结, it is wise to continue preparing for a scenario where the EU and the UK fail to close a deal on their future relations, 双方之间的贸易将在世贸组织框架下进行. 我保持乐观——我认为这不会发生. 但即便如此，这也不会是世界末日，也不会是贸易的终结.

阅读我们的 日博体育备用如何为你的生意做准备的建议，或在我们的 Brexit页面.